Thursday, November 4, 2010

Why Chris Dudley Lost, what I've wanted to say for Six Months!


I knew this day was coming and have held my tongue and played the good “team player” game. Well, being a “team player” didn’t sit well with me and now here we are.

All the way back in February and March of 2010, several people, very prominent in the Conservative movement and the Republican Party, met with Chris Dudley and his campaign staff.
These people spoke very clearly to Mr. Dudley. He was advised, urgently, to “get rid of those people”. Of course “those people” were the Gordon Smith insiders including Dan Lavey and Kerry Timchuck. Later, Brittany Brammel and LeRoy Coleman and other “outsiders”.

To their faces, they were told that they could not win this election, that Chris had to surround himself with Oregonians, and especially Oregonians who understand Oregon, not just the Portland Metro area. Chris was told during several long meetings, before the primary mind you, that he had a real chance to win if he listened now! Chris chose to go with the plan they had laid out for him and now we see the results.

Chris Dudley was a creation of Gordon Smith insiders who left Oregon after Gordon lost but came back to “create” another moderate candidate for office. Now, these same people will go back to D.C., with a little bit more money in their pocket, a little smudge against their pride but nothing else will change in their lives, yet they leave us in this mess!

The Libertarian (limited government) and Constitution (far right conservative) candidates each pulled more votes than the margin of victory for Kitzhaber. I had to explain on many occasion after the primary to my friends, family and radio listeners, that Dudley would be surrounded by good Republicans after the election and to take comfort in that. Why did I have to explain it that way? Because person after person was concerned about Dudley’s moderate to liberal stance on everything except fiscal issues. I am afraid that many of those same people either voted for the “other party” candidates or they left the Governor unchecked on their ballot.

We have tried again and again to win with moderate candidates from the Portland business crowd who promise solid fundraising. This year, we had the establishment GOP candidate, and he lost against the most complete insider, old way of government liberal in a year in which the entire Nation was in the midst of a true Conservative tidal wave of support, and they swept in limited government insurgent outsiders while we here in Oregon are left with Kitzhaber.

One thing that this election showed is that money alone will not win a statewide Republican race (same in California). It will take a good ground game with really energized folks. Those folks just could not “pull the lever” for Chris Dudley.

Instead of trying to please the middle, instead of trying to sound like you are not going to make any waves and play nice with the folks who have dug Oregon into this hole, what the Dudley campaign should have said is: “this State requires a complete makeover and I will be the one to do that even if it means only one term, I will stick to Conservative principles and will surround myself with strong Conservatives and I will not sleep until Oregon is the back in the condition it deserves to be in. That means that some old pictures are going to fall off of the wall.”

People will vote Republican if a Republican articulates a strong and exciting limited government message. A message delivered with a sense of commitment and passion.

Most of all, in the next gubernatorial primary, the Republicans should run a true Conservative, stop pandering to the Portland crowd and Republican voters should listen less to the folks with all the money and more to the candidates who run on a limited government message, and stay true to our Conservative ideals, the ones that made America a strong refuge.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

I have been thinking about Glenn Beck's "call" to America to wake up to God. Could this man be one God uses to bring about Revival in the land?

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Oregon SOS Kate Brown: Her "rules" vs. Oregon Constitution

Petition 50, the Redistricting Initiative that backers were hoping would be on the November ballot is in serious jeopardy right now. (Here is a story from back in April from the Oregonian that does a good job of explaining the initiative)
The initiative needed 110,358 signatures and election officials say that 125,948 were gathered. Sounds good right? Wrong. As of this writing, the Secretary of State's office has "disqualified" or thrown out, 12,975 signatures for various reasons.

Now you might think that Kate Brown's office has good reason and perhaps even Oregon Constitutional law behind her to do this, right? Wrong. The Oregon Constitution mandates that signatures be verified. There is a process for that. What the Constitution does NOT mandate is throwing signatures out! It is silent on that. So, what we have here is a politician, starting with Bill Bradbury and now continued with Kate Brown, changing the game so to speak. If her office does not want an initiative to hit the ballot, she throws out signatures and that's that.

Here are some examples of reasons for "invalidating" signatures:
If you put a / through the 0 in the date, it's invalid.
If you didn't put the date as: 06/22/10, it's invalid.
If you wrote your spouses name and address and then he or she signed it, it's invalid.
If your black pen ran out of ink and you chose another pen, even a black one, it's invalid.
If you pressed harder on the "B" or any other part of your petition so that it looks like it's been "altered", it's invalid.
The rule requiring an entire sheet of signatures to be thrown out for one error is not a legitimate exercise and is unfair to the others who are represented on that sheet. It is not Constitutional and it is part of the continual attack on Oregon's very unique and wonderful initiative petition process.

Do you think the same "due diligence" was given to the "Marijuana Initiative"? Any of the other initiatives that did make the November ballot?

Tyler Smith, attorney for redistricting initiative said that "about 11% were disqualified before the statistical sampling was done". The process that is mandated by the Oregon Constitution is a statistical process. These 11% were tossed out BEFORE the process.
Mr. Smith is currently filing a lawsuit against Secretary of State Kate Brown and this and the process for this initiative must be completed by August 1st in order for there to be any chance of this initiative to be on the November ballot.

I for one am outraged and
if you signed that petition, you should be as outraged as I am and willing to do whatever it takes to stop this blatant abuse of power. I am urging all who read this to call Kate Brown's office at 503-986-1523 or even better, to visit her office today. Her office is in the State Capitol Building, on the first floor in the East wing. Please let her know that you are not going to allow her and her office to continue to kill your voice by way of disqualifying your signature.

This is why I do my radio show every day. I want nothing more than to tell you the truth of what happens in your State Government and then empower you to do something about it. If that is something that you feel you are not hearing enough of, then I urge you to listen to my radio show every weekday at noon on AM 1430 KYKN or online at You can hear Tyler Smith and I discuss the lawsuit and this issue on my website:, click on "Listen to Latest Show" through 2pm tomorrow and then it will move into the "Podcast" archive at the top of the page.

Kate Brown wants your help on this petition. In a document sent out last year, she asks if the petition is "valid". This comes out now at the same time as the "disqualifying" of signatures? You don't think there is a conspiracy here? READ DOCUMENT HERE!

Sunday, June 6, 2010

How Quickly our Personal Freedoms can be taken away!

As some of you may know, I have been involved with Avva Cigars and Wine's fight with the Oregon Department of Health and Services (DHS) over whether Avva should have been allowed the "smoke shop exemption" as accorded in the statute.
I have posted before, the law and the application of the exemption. I now bring new evidence that should alarm anyone who is concerned about liberty, freedom and who are against State control.
On my radio show on Monday, from noon to two, I will be reading this evidence along with playing sound files that show a willful denying of the exemption by 4 women who work for DHS, and how that denial has been unlawfully applied and the appeal process by Avva has been intentionally delayed or strategically denied by DHS employees who have used at the least, improper strategy.
See in the photo below, in the middle, an email from Kylie Menagh of DHS in which she brags about how they can delay the process (Miss Menagh refers to herself in various emails as: Tobacco Prevention Coordinator, and in others as: MPH, Health Promotion and Chronic Disease Prevention Program). You will need to click on these images to better see the emails:
In that same email photo you can see the back and forth emails where these DHS employees begin a process of making up policy and procedure “on the fly” as they did not have any policy or procedure set down to follow.

In another email, Miss Jill Thompson of DHS states that she couldn’t even find Avva Cigars until she “followed her nose” so to speak, when she was on an outing with her “BF and Son” (which by the way, the smoke she smelled was from the Cigarette smokers area at the front door of the Mall, not from Avva). You will need to click on these images to better see the emails:

Here is where the “cover up” gets interesting. On Dec. 7, 2009, the decision was made that Avva would be “indefinitely denied” as you can see from the photo of the email below. You will need to click on these images to better see the emails:

Avva was never informed of the “indefinite denial” but was told it’s application was denied on Dec. 10, 2009.

On Dec. 18, 2009, DHS employees began to attempt to conceal their activities by removing all communication regarding Avva’s application process to “telephone communication only”. Why would they do this? Well as you can see by the email below, my radio show had started quite a stir with my listeners who began calling DHS, Marion County and their representatives. One of those representative, Matt Wingard, and his assistant Dawn Phillips even went so far as to begin their own investigation into the matter and to begin to attempt to contact these employee’s own boss, Dr. Bruce Goldberg, head of DHS. Read the email. You will need to click on these images to better see the emails:

By Dec. 30, 2009, Avva requested an opportunity to submit additional material to support it's case to appeal the denial. Avva was not aware of the "indefinite denial" as these were again, internal emails. Avva did not receive a response on this additional information until April 7, 2010. The case is now before a DHS hearing, conducted by DHS. (I bet that will be “objective”?)

Tomorrow, on my radio show, I will go into further detail, the "why" DHS denied Avva's exemption, play audio from the Senate floor of the Legislature as Sen. Prozanski and Sen. Walker actually describe how a "smoke shop located in a mall setting would be exempted" and how DHS employees willfully and purposely have "bent the law" to their own agenda that was best stated by Miss Menagh when she told the owner of Avva (and the owner of Rich's Cigars in Portland): "my mission is to end ALL smoking in Oregon and will do what I can to achieve that goal".

THAT my friends, is what "state control" looks like. Not "state" as in the State of Oregon, but "state" as in "socialist state". A "state" where one's personal and business rights are trampled on by "state" employees who have the power, not voted on by the people, but power handed to them by their employer, The State of Oregon. This is how quickly freedom can be squelched!

I beg you to listen tomorrow to my show, hear the evidence and then contact DHS, Marion County Health and your local Representative and have them look into this matter. It's not about smoking or not smoking. It's about Personal Freedom!

Thursday, March 25, 2010

How to ruin a political campaign in one easy move!

One thing I have always promised my listeners, I will interview and bring to them as many candidates in Oregon as I possibly can this campaign season. With each of those candidates, whether I like them or not, agree with them or not I WILL treat each of them with the respect they deserve. I will never blast them with questions, but rather will ask them in the sneaky, polite way that I am so good at, and get the answer I am looking for to help you.

I say all of this to bring to your attention, once again, it is MONEY that drives these things for many.
Lars Larson has been cozying up very nicely with the Chris Dudley campaign lately. So much so that in their last "interview" Lars actually helped Dudley answer a listener question on Abortion. I read the transcript, it was sick!
NOW the truth can be told. The owner of Lar's radio station, Larry Wilson of KXL donated $50,000 to the Dudley campaign. Gee, ya think that had anything to do with Lars's love affair? May I remind the reader that this is not new for Lars.
In the last governor race, he started the campaign firmly in Jason Atkinson's camp, fully supporting him and really giving Jason a voice in Oregon.
THEN, all of a sudden "Poof", Atkinson's out and Saxton is the golden boy and we lost again!
Folks, I will NEVER do that. NEVER!!
I may remain a small market talker for my entire life but I will be happy and I will sleep at night.
Here are the details from the State of Oregon:

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

House Speaker Dave Hunt uses foul word AGAIN!

Rep. Dave Hunt, the Speaker of the House in the Oregon Legislature has once again used the vile term: "teabaggers" in reference to the Taxpayers Rally in Salem on Monday.
His video can be found at the Statesman-Journal website.
What I am most offended at is his continued defense of his use of the term.
Now, many of you may not even know the sexual definition of the term (I was ignorant of it for most of my life) but suffice to say it is very filthy!
I have linked below a story I did on Oregon Catalyst that details his email responses to my listener's legitimate complaints and questions. Please click on the link:


Sunday, February 7, 2010

The Who at Halftime: Great Memories!

Was a great game and I thought for their age and all, The Who (well at least the 1/2 still alive) were pretty darn good.
It reminded me a lot though of how great they WERE!
Here is a video including the GREAT Keith Moon on drums from the late 70's doing the classic anthem "Won't Get Fooled Again".
Watch the details: Moonie's massive drum kit and how he uses it all, John "The Ox" Entwistle, perhaps the greatest rock bassist ever, calmly playing the most complicated lines while standing mostly still, Pete windmilling, flying, twirling and then smashing his guitar and finally, the singer who I think is the greatest rock vocalist of all time smashing the notes with the authority he had.
Classic and timeless!
Ok and for you young and LEARN! The Who at their insane best:
Won't Get Fooled Again Live The Who

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

SEIU funds new Anti-Tea Party Website

It has just come to my attention that there is a new website out there called:

The Tea Party Is Over (Click for website)

Here is a quote from the front page:
Our Strategy is simple. This movement is a fad. Some of their ideas include the belief that programs like Social Security and Medicare are socialistic and should never have been created in the first place and that President Obama is a Socialist. Other ideas include undermining the legitimacy of the federal government in favor of a radical rightwing form of state’s rights. We need to prevent their dangerous ideas from gaining a legislative foothold. So our strategy is to spread the truth about their dangerous ideas and prevent their policies from taking root in America.

Now I have no problem with the left having their little website, it's the group that is funding it that I have a problem with!
The site is paid for by The American Public Policy Committee. According to Open Secrets dot org, their two donors are Patriot Majority and Patriot Majority West.
However, the second largest contributor in 2008 to Patriot Majority was the SEIU and other powerful unions. I have outlined the donations below:

American Public Policy Committee: Top Contributors, 2010 Cycle Rank Contributor Total
1 Patriot Majority West $25,000

2 Patriot Majority $5,000

This data is based on records released by the Internal Revenue Service on Tuesday, January 19, 2010.

Patriot Majority: Top Contributors, 2008 Cycle
Rank Contributor Total

1 American Fedn of St/Cnty/Munic Employees $5,800,000

2 Service Employees International Union $770,000

3 Change to Win $500,000
4 Patriot Majority West $300,000
4 Communications Workers of America $300,000

6 Teamsters Union $250,000

7 Patriot Majority Midwest $161,000

8 United Food & Commercial Workers Union $125,000

9 Bauman Foundation $25,000

10 American Affordable Health Care $11,874

11 Oklahoma Freedom Fund $10,469

12 Pennsylvania AFL-CIO $6,500

13 Bluegrass Freedom Fund $5,000

14 Public Security Now $920

15 American Public Policy Cmte $861

This data is based on records released by the Internal Revenue Service on Tuesday, January 19, 2010.

I wonder if the diversion of union money is acceptable to the union members or heck, if the members even know about it?

Want to really have some fun? Click on the link above for the website and flood them with emails, tweets and Facebook postings reminding them of Massachusetts and the upcoming November elections! The email addresses, twitter account and Facebook pages are all available for anyone to join. This is Democracy in action my friends!

Monday, January 25, 2010

Revisiting the Avva Cigars Saga with DHS

The process is continuing in the fight for the rights of smokers at Avva Cigars.
I have acquired the actual transcripts from the Legislature when they were discussing SB571 which became the Smoke Free Workplace Law.
Note the points made by the Senator quoted:

/ unclear / Members of the Committee -9 / unclear / exception to the smoking prohibitions for “smoke shops”
It clarifies that smokes shops may sell alcohol in a specific lounge area between the hours of 3 pm and 8 pm.
[Clerk] Okay , Senator Porzanski.
[Senator Prozanski] Move / unclear / -9 amendment to SB5771 … for consideration
[Clerk] Senator Prozanski has moved for -9 amendment to Senate Bill 571. Is there any discussion?
[Senator Prozanski] Perhaps I’ll go over the amendment since most of the people here don’t know or have not had an opportunity to hear what the -9 Amendment is about. We had a testimony that was at our first public hearing which was in Eugene at the U of O Law School. And at that time we heard from an individual that actually owns a smoke shop or tobacco shop, and after hearing testimony I was compelled to bring forward the -9 Amendment. The -9 Amendment actually would define a smoke shop as a business that’s primarily engaged in the sale of tobacco products and smoke instruments as defined in the statutes. At least 75% of their gross revenue for the business will have to come from the sale of tobacco products. It will, in fact, prohibit individuals under the age of 18 from entering the premises . It will not allow for lottery gaming or any type of betting on premise. As anybody remembers the individual that gave the testimony talked about having lottery in his establishment . I think that after speaking to most of the committee members, we did not want to see this becoming a loophole for bars to be able to somehow stay in existence as they currently are. So by eliminating – or prohibiting, I should say – any type of gaming and requiring that the primary income come from the sale of tobacco .
And the next part on that component is that it needs to be a stand-alone business meaning that it cannot be structured in an area like what we would call a mall, so the ventilation system will not be tied in to any way, shape or fashion to allow smoke to come out of there.
The testimony that we heard in Eugene … it occurred to me that when you talk about smoke shops where you have cigars or pipe tobacco being sold, it’s not uncommon for individuals who are buying those items to want to test them or sample them. And it seems only right at this stage in our laws in the state, as well as in the country, with tobacco being a legal product, that this would be an appropriate exception to the bill.
It should be noted for those that are here, as we heard in the testimony in Eugene, this individual said everyone that worked for them were smokers because, as he stated, that it’s very important for those individuals to know the tobaccos they are selling and it was just basically common. So though we are concerned about making sure individuals who work in employment situations are not directly impacted by smoke or they have no choice, it appears that you are talking about a very small segment of the population that would be seeking those type of jobs. And, as he said, all of his employees in themselves are, in fact, smokers.

So as you can see, they intended for the "smoke shop" exemption to be for even those stores IN A MALL, IF they have their own ventilation. Avva has it's own HVAC and ventilation and in fact structurally is completely detached from the mall, and Sadeeh has the documentation from the City, the mall and the engineers to prove this. The next step is to meet with DHS to present all of this new information!

Monday, January 18, 2010

The Bus Project Returns (and it's sorta nasty!)

This ad for "voting" came to us courtesy of the Bus Project, the crazy leftwing nutjobs that we "outed" last Summer on the show. This is the bus that Jim Bernau from Willamette Valley Vineyards paid for.
Several questions come to my mind when I look at this photo ad:
1 - Why is she looking at his "election" that way?
2 - Is this all we will have left if 66 and 67 pass?
3 - Do these two work for the elections division and if so, should I have checked for STD's before opening my ballot?
4 - Couldn't they find some more normal looking Oregonians?
The left will do ANYTHING to get across their agenda. Even this. Oh well. At least we aren't left with his shortcomings.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Oregon Women Lead to have "Pro Choice Happy Hour"

I received an email from a listener and I have pasted it below and then I will tell you "the rest of the story"!

Dear Bill, I am a regular listener to your radio show and recently had an experience that bothered me. I'd like your opinion. Yesterday I picked up Salem Monthly to peruse and lo and behold, saw this advertisement.

Oregon Women Lead
invites women to celebrate the
37th Anniversary of Roe v. Wade
Friday, January 22, 2010 from 5-7 PM
at our inaugural monthly Pro Choice Happy Hour

Speakers: Bonnie Heitsch, Lori Warner,
& Jacqueline Zimmer

The Founders of Planned Parenthood in Salem

enjoy your choice of Delish' no host nibbles


Britta 503-399-9099 or Cindy 503-588-8713 Marco Polo Restaurant 300 Liberty St. SE Salem 300 Liberty St. SE Salem Lots of easy parking Now, I am an Oregon woman and I see nothing to celebrate in the tragedy of Roe v. Wade. I think they should rename "Oregon Woman Lead" - "Oregon Lead Women"- because any woman who believes that she, or anyone else has a right to kill the life in the womb must have a heart made of lead. I was sickened at the thought of these women munching on their "delish nibbles" at a Happy Hour celebrating such a tragedy. So, I did what any "normal" prolifer would do. I first called the organization. One line was busy, the other seemed like a woman's personal voice mail. Then, I called Marco Polo restaurant and asked to talk to whoever was responsible for reservations. I believe I talked to the owner of the restaurant, and English was not his first language. I talked very calmly and clearly, saying that I wanted to voice my objection to the pro-abortion group that was meeting there on the 22nd. He did not seem shaken, and seemed to understand what I was talking about. He said that they treat everyone equally, and asked for my name and phone number. I calmly explained that I believed that having this group celebrate at this business was equivalent to hosting Ku Klux clansmen, or a Nazi organization. These people were meeting to plot the destruction of more human life; and I wanted to be a voice for life. He could not have been threatened by my phone call unless he completely misunderstood what I was saying. We hung up cordially; or so I thought. About 45 minutes later I got a phone call saying "Is This Faith?" (my first name) I said, "Yup!" and they hung up. An hour later a policeman called, saying some "goob" had called a restaurant- it was a possible prank. I told him that I did indeed call a restaurant to voice my complaint over an organization that was meeting there. He wanted to make sure that there wasn't going to be a protest. I told him that I should not be getting contacted by the police for making a simple phone call, and if there was a protest that would be an entirely different matter, and the police should deal with that if that happened. He then wanted my full name and date of birth. He treated me as if I was a threat and a problem, and would not let me finish a sentence without trying to interrupt me. You know, as if someone else was in the room and he wanted to act as if I was yelling or acting beligerant. He finally said "I'm hanging up now", and did. I feel as if my rights are being stripped away; as if being pro-life suddenly nullifies my voice. My name is now under a case number- I am filed away- to be dealt with as they see fit. After this happened I looked at my children and for the first time REALLY started worrying about what kind of world they will inherit. The fight has become personal now. If people don't see life as a gift and treasure in itself; anyone is expendable. The aged, the handicapped, any children over the one child limit, or anyone who doesn't agree with the government, the list can go on and on. The leap from a woman's right to kill the life within her to the government forcibly taking that life is very short. God bless you in your fight for what is right and most respectful to human life- it is a comfort to have you on the air. Sincerely,

I left her name off for her own privacy.
Later yesterday I called the Salem Police Department to ask them about the case and found that the Marco Polo owner had indeed called the police "concerned that a protest would happen". The detective let them know that a protest is anyone's right and that was the end of the story.
Then, we allowed the emailer to tell her story on the air and her passion and compassion came through better then I could have done by just reading the ad.
We were bombarded with calls and especially after I gave out the names and phone numbers of the two ladies who were asking for RSVP's.
By the way, they have a website: and when you go there you will find that our fine Secretary of State, Kate Brown and our State Schools Superintendent Susan Castillo as well!

Many of my listeners called the two ladies and all of them were told "we have your phone number now and will be calling the police". As if that were a threat or something? Several listeners also called the restaurant and talked to the owner.
Here is how one of those conversations went:

Just called the Marco Polo, talked to Jackie, a very pleasent Asian lady who is the owner along with her husband and son. She said that when the OWL group scheduled this event, for the 22nd, she had no idea what they stood for. And they really feel caught in the middle on this. She also let me know that times are really tough for them right now and they need the business.
I told her that OWL has planned this to be a monthly event and that if they continue to meet at Morco Polo's then my family and many others will not frequent their resturant.
I really don't think OWL will meet their again from what I was able to understand through Jackies broken English. If that is the fact then WE need to support Marco Polo's with our business...and let them know why we are there.
If you call the Marco Polo, please be civil, speak your mind, but be nice to them.

Lastly, on their website they list "Opportunities to Serve". This made Keizer City Councilman Brandon Smith very interested. He wrote the following to me:

Here's an interesting fact: when you click on "Opportunities To Serve", it gives you to each governmental jurisdiction in the area. When you click on City Of Keizer, a pop-up window gives the home phone numbers of the mayor and each city councilor. I'm not clear how someone is serving the pro-abortion cause by calling me.

What are we to do? I will follow up this story with more information today on The Bill Post Radio Show at noon on 1430 AM KYKN and online at or catch the podcast of yesterday's show at my website: The Bill Post Radio Show
Picture what they are saying: PRO CHOICE HAPPY HOUR!!!???
Poor taste to say the least, outrageous is what I say!

Monday, January 11, 2010

The "Transparency" Law shows what State Workers Make

State Workers: you can thank your legislature for making up HB2500 and making YOUR salary Public Knowledge!
Below is the story and the list of every employee and their salary!
Still support your Democrat led Legislature?

Thursday, January 7, 2010

The Smoke Free Workplace Law, One Year Later

Here is a fantastic article that exposes the abuse of DHS and the well intentioned law from last January.

Great article on why to vote NO on 66 and 67!

Why Oregonians should vote NO on Measures 66 & 67

Dan Lucas has written a fantastic, in depth look at what passing these two taxes will do to Oregon. Please read and pass this on to EVERYONE in Oregon! Click on the link to get his story.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Oregon Economists Expand on the Negative Effects of Measure 66 and 67 Tax Increases

Oregon Economists Expand on the Negative
Effects of Measure 66 and 67 Tax Increases

Cascade Policy Institute just released a major economic study which uses two different methods to analyze the impact that the higher tax rates of Measures 66 and 67 will have on Oregon's economy if approved by voters on January 26. Written by two prominent Oregon economists, Drs. Randall Pozdena and Eric Fruits, the study concludes that:

  • Preliminary estimates made last June by Drs. William Conerly and Randall Pozdena of 70,000 jobs lost over time are entirely plausible and may even be conservative.

The study measures the likely economic impacts of the measures in these two ways:

1. Using a database spanning 31 years for the 48 continental states, the effects of tax rate increases on job growth are measured empirically using regression analysis. This exercise finds that the proposed tax rate increases will perpetually impair the rate of job growth in Oregon.

2. Using recent Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Statistics on Income (SOI) data, the pattern of migration of tax filers between Oregon and the other 49 states is examined statistically.

Among its conclusions, the study finds that:

  • The literature is clear that raising marginal tax rates is an impediment to economic growth and employment growth.
  • Between 47,000 and 55,000 jobs will be lost by 2018 from the increase in top marginal tax rates alone in the two measures. The study did not attempt to measure the job loss impacts caused from the phase-out of the federal tax deduction for higher incomes in Measure 66 or from the increased corporate minimum taxes in Measure 67.
  • Net out-migration of tax filers will be approximately 80,000 greater than otherwise over a ten year period. These lost filers are likely to have significantly higher incomes than the average tax filer. Again, this estimate is only based on the increase in top marginal rates, not on other features of the measures.
  • The average biennial loss in Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) from Measures 66 and 67 is approximately $1.1 billion dollars--50 percent higher than the $733 million first-biennial transfer of income from the private sector sought by the measures. Over ten years about $5.6 billion in AGI is expected to be lost. Such loses reduce the likelihood of the measures generating their full, anticipated revenue.
  • Finally, positive impacts of public infrastructure spending on state level output, if any, may be less than the negative consequences of suppressing private activity. In the literature, the case for raising taxes even to preserve education or health spending is not clear when the offsetting, long-run impacts on the private sector are considered. Raising taxes to preserve transfer payments has an even weaker justification when long-run impacts are considered. Thus, although maintaining public spending may seem to be a well-intentioned "safety net" policy, the result of diverting funds from the private to the public sector actually may prolong the return to prosperity of individuals affected by the recession.

The authors warn that even if the State does phase out the tax increases to some degree (as the measures contemplate), it may be difficult to undo the perception that Oregon selectively burdens business and higher-income households rather than prudently restraining State spending. This perception will weaken investment in the state and lead to even larger job losses and net out-migration of tax filers than their models predict.

Cascade Senior Policy Analyst and founder Steve Buckstein said this about the study: "Oregonians now have two independent ways to judge the economic impact of these tax measures. Both confirm that we are likely to lose tens of thousands of jobs and tens of thousands of the very people who invest in businesses and create jobs in our state."

"This study makes clear that Oregon may be embarking on a policy that will likely suppress and repel economic activity in the state. Doing this during good times would be bad enough. Doing it during one of the deepest recessions on record is very hard to understand."

Buckstein added that "Oregonians need to recognize that capital and people are mobile--especially the corporations and high-income individuals targeted by these two tax measures. If they move, Oregon loses the jobs that their companies, spending and investments create. Even for those who remain, these higher tax rates will reduce the motivation to work harder and create more jobs. The result will be damaging for countless Oregonians that tax proponents claim won't be affected by these measures."

Tax Policy and the Oregon Economy:
The Effects of Measures 66 and 67

by Randall Pozdena and Eric Fruits
Cascade Policy Institute • December 2009

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Where there's smoke, there's overregulation!

You probably know by now that Avva Cigars and Wine in Salem was denied their "smoke shop" exemption in December. This is still being fought and will continue until the entire process has been used.
NOW I have received word through my sources that this is not the first time this has happened.
A great article in the Oregonian last week shows how the employees of the State Department of Health have taken upon themselves to define the law that the Legislature laid out for them. Not what the law says, but what they BELIEVE the law says!

Smoke Shop Exemption Hard To Get!

I understand that Rich's Cigars in Portland was denied the first time as well and then was exempted after fighting this.
Broadway Cigars is "partially" exempt.
Other shops around the state have either given up or are in violation.
This is NOT what the legislature had in mind.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Jim Bernau, Willamette Valley Vineyards and the Bus redux

It seems Mr. Bernau, the CEO of Willamette Valley Vineyards is not happy with The Bill Post Radio Show. A very "threatening" letter came from his attorney telling Justin he should pull his blog entry about the bus. Justin did so to keep the radio station boss happy BUT, this was a pure and simple power attack by a large corporation.
This guy is STILL playing both sides of the political aisle.
Take a look at this:
In the 2008 primary he gave money to both Rudy Giuliani AND Hillary Clinton. There is much more but I will continue to let his own words hang him.
When he was on my show, calling from his boat on Detroit Lake back in August, he showed what his true feeling were and with this threat from his attorneys I would say that Mr. Bernau got his butt smacked at the last stockholder's meeting!
They should demand his resignation AND demand THEIR money back for the cost of the Bus! Need I remind you what the Bus was for and how proud he was to purchase it? Here is the original story as it appeared back in August on my blog and radio show: